With mainstreaming media propaganda running headlines stating that the Jobless Claims are now at the lowest in 15 years, today King World News is featuring a piece that warns the markets may finally be ready to see a serious selloff. This piece also lets KWN readers know the initial downside target for the first wave of selling.
"Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate." … FOMC Policy Decision Statement, 1/28/2015
By Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James
January 29 (King World News) – Yesterday's trading pattern was a microcosm of how the year thus far has gone, with back and forth action faking investors out on both sides and bad news coming along just in time to stall any sustainable gains. The "bad news" this time, at least according to a few commentaries I read, was the Fed's policy statement release at 2 p.m. that contained language voicing concerns about low inflation.
Once investors digested this bit of dreariness in the forward outlook, volume picked up and the major indexes sold off to well-below yesterday's low, putting this market back within sight of the 1990 key support level in the S&P 500. The range-bound trading we have experienced this month looks to be forming an almost picture-perfect Double Top pattern, which resembles the letter "M," and a daily close below 1990 would now complete this pattern and signal that further losses are more likely than not. Now, I don't typically put a whole lot of conviction into technical price targets, but if this Double Top does continue to play out in a text-book manner, that would give us a minimum downside target of around 1916.
So despite stellar earnings releases from both Apple and Boeing providing a glimmer of hope in what has otherwise been a shaky reporting season, it still looks like we may be in for rougher waters if this market cannot shake off these foreign exchange and global slowdown concerns.
And just in case you're having trouble believing that investors are worried about the strong dollar, I found one bit of interesting analysis yesterday. According to Bespoke Investment Group, "the average stock in the [Russell 1000] index is currently down 0.91% year-to-date.
But the average performance of companies in the index that are 100% domestic is +0.61%, while the average performance of companies in the index that generate 50% or more of their revenues outside of the US is -3.34%." This reaction has recently been helping the small and micro caps to finally get some attention from the market, with the group quietly putting in not-such-a-horrible-day on Tuesday. However, they could not continue this pattern of outperformance yesterday, and the Russell 2000 led the major indexes lower with a 1.64% loss.
So not only is the price action bouncing around, you're also seeing some inconsistencies and fluctuations amongst many of the indicators I use to gauge just what is going on out there, like relative strength trends. And, of course, oil never seems to pass up a chance to disappoint those looking for signs of a turnaround, as it actually closed below the $45 mark for the first time, according to my charts, after the level had been acting as fairly strong support.
So we still seem to be on shaky ground for now, with corporate earnings continuing to be in the spotlight. We shall see today if 1990 is threatened once again, and if this "line in the sand" is crossed, we could see a repeat of last year where late January weakness spilled over into February. ***ALSO RELEASED: Billionaire Eric Sprott – Entities Wiped Out Overnight As Western Central Banks Near Total Surrender CLICK HERE.
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