Today a famed short seller said investors will be buying gold at a remarkably higher price.
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
April 6 (King World News) – Overnight markets were essentially flat, but that didn’t stop the SPOOs from rallying about 0.4%, then declining a touch less than that. Following that bit of what I would call “stock market roulette,” the weakness gave way to a modest rally through midday. What I mean by “roulette” is the seemingly completely random 0.3% to 0.5% (or larger) moves in stock indices these days. Of course, there are also the days where almost nothing happens, but I do like that term. It seems to fit the environment…
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Spin Moves
The market built on the early rally and the Nasdaq (today’s index leader, powered by intense biotech speculation) was 1% higher by mid-afternoon when the entirely predictable Fed minutes hit the tape and seemed to halt the rally, before they then seemed to power a continuation of it (though I can’t tell you why either should have occurred). In any case, by day’s end the Nasdaq was 1.5% higher, while the Dow/S&P tacked on about 0.75% and 1%, respectively.
Away from stocks, green paper was initially quite strong before it gave up its gains to finish slightly weaker on the day. Oil popped for 5%, fixed income was weaker, and the metals fell 0.5%.
“Just Sitting Here Watching the Wheels Go Round and Round…”
I wish I had something insightful or intelligent to say about the current environment, but I really don’t. The next test for the market I suspect will be earnings season, and I don’t think it will be very impressive, but we will see soon enough.
Included below are three questions and answers from the Q&A’s with Bill Fleckenstein.
Bonus Q&A
Question: Of all the disparaging headlines I’ve seen about gold over the years, this one wins the prize: As an Investor, Osama bin Laden Was Bullish on Gold
Answer from Fleck: “LOL, in the end all these losers will buy our gold from us at some truly stupendous price.”
Question: Fleck, as you know, I work for a large bank. Well, people very close to me were just laid off. My brother in law lost his job recently, and now I was at a party and a close friend lost his. Honestly, this does not feel like 4.9% unemployment at all – it just doesn’t “feel” right given what I am seeing. This is actually scaring me and I am losing sleep over it. It’s weird the disconnect between what our leaders say and what I am experiencing.
Answer from Fleck: “Our “leaders” are mostly incompetent or liars… Don’t expect the truth from them.“
Question: I believe we are finally in the up cycle for gold and it started late last year or early this year – what I really love right now is the short story – the short story is….”the commercials are heavily short” and they are never or hardly ever wrong – that’s the investment advice these days – don’t buy gold bc the commercials are very short and it might drop back under 1180. Brilliant just friggan Brilliant
for the Elliot wave crew – this should be the 3rd wave up and that is the longest wave of them all so if you thought wave 1 to 1900 was special sit on your hands and like you say fleck do not fight the last battle.
Answer from Fleck: “I agree, the “analysis” that is behind the logic to be short is pretty lame.”
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