People across the earth need to buckle up because a massive wave of inflation is on the way.
A Massive Wave Of Inflation
March 17 (King World News) – Peter Boockvar: With everything going on in the Middle East, busy week ahead with central bankers. The Fed, the ECB, the BoE, the SNB, the BoJ and the RBA all give us their thoughts and possible policy moves this week. The RBA is the only one expected to move on the rate side and that is up by 25 bps to 4.10%. The rest we’ll get to hear how they are viewing things. To them, is the rise in energy prices something to worry about with respect to inflation that they need to act against or something to look through on the belief it is temporary?
With the Fed, they of course also have to balance the labor market side (even though the others do too implicitly) and how is Powell viewing the slowdown in hiring with respect to both the supply for workers and the demand for them? I think we’ll get a lot of ‘I don’t know’ and ‘let’s wait and see.’ Either way, the world’s major central banks are done for now in cutting rates and we’ll soon see how Kevin Warsh balances what his boss wants and what he really wants to do.
At least through the lens of the US crude oil rig count, US drillers haven’t responded much yet to the spike in prices. For the week ended Friday, the rig count went up by just one rig to 412, still bouncing along the lowest level since September 2021.
With respect to natural gas, something the rest of the world really needs now and the US an export powerhouse in LNG, particularly to Asia and Europe that can’t get deliveries from the Mideast, it rose by just one rig too.
The average gallon of gasoline rose by almost another nickel over the weekend to $3.72 a gallon, up by 21% y/o/y.
We’re also watching the price of food as fertilizer shipments slow, resulting in a jump in fertilizer prices.
The CRB Food Stuff index closed Friday within pennies of the highest since last November.
It was private credit that we know filled the void of bank lending post the GFC regulatory screws on the banks. It has been though banks that have been now lending to private credit and to what extent? This chart from my friend Adam Josephson. For those that aren’t watching closely, NDFI are non-depository financial institutions.
On Friday, the high yield spread to Treasuries broke above 300 bps to 312, the most since last June as we watch to see if there is any spillover from the private credit/leveraged loan markets.
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