As we come to the end of a wild trading week in global markets, today a legend in the business sent King World News a powerful piece discussing the chaos in Greece and China as well as the danger of central planner interference in global markets.
From Art Cashin's notes: Offshore Developments – Another Man's View – My friend, Peter Boockvar, over at the Lindsey Group put out a skeptical, almost sardonic assessment of things on other continents. Here's a bit:
Thank you Alexis Tsipras for presenting a proposal on spending, taxes and pensions that is almost identical to the one that was offered to you on June 26th that you were not happy with, your finance minister called terrorism, with which you then called a referendum, campaigned on a no vote, then won the referendum. Politics as the populace suffers is nothing new unfortunately but either way, we now await a Greek vote in its Parliament and then confirmation that the creditors will accept it which they likely will.
Keep in mind though that this proposal undertook economic scenarios before the Greek economy was further trashed over the past week. On a possible debt writedown, Merkel has said it’s out of the question but just as seen in 2012, there will likely be a further cut in coupon payments and extension of debt maturities which is essentially a present value write off. The Greeks will then be given another 3 yrs of time and another 50b euros of debt. We’ll then see again if the time borrowed is any different than the prior three years. The Greek 2 yr note yield is lower by 2323 bps to 34.4%, the bonds of Italy, Spain and Portugal are higher with yields lower and the euro is ripping higher. The bonds of the UK, Germany, France and the US are seeing a flight from safety. The US 10 yr yield is now almost back to unchanged on the week.
Switching gears to China, the Shanghai index rallied another 4.5% which put the index now up on the week. About half of Chinese stocks remained closed unfortunately. The H shares in Hong Kong were up by 3.6% and remains a single digit P/E ratio market. Margin debt fell for a 14th straight day. To another government that finds it necessary to manipulate and distort markets, I will leave you with this quote from Esther George, the KC Fed President, given in a speech yesterday, “monetary policy must step back and allow market forces to resume their critical role of pricing risk and allocating capital to its best use.”
Janet Yellen speaks at 12:30pm on the economic outlook and we’ll see to what extent she will find excuses to not raise rates anytime soon or just maybe she will listen to Esther George.
Yellen may be a bit guarded in today's speech due to her appearance next week in Congress for the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.
Consensus – Chinese and European markets positively bubbled. U.S. futures are sharply higher. Check your calendar – is this today or yesterday? The desire for a Greek deal is almost palpable. The hope for a weekend settlement may pressure shorts to reduce risk. Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble." ***ALSO JUST RELEASED: A Shocking Look At Investor Panic From China's Stock Market Crash To Extreme Fear In The U.S. And What's Next For Gold And Silver CLICK HERE.
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