With the Dow, crude oil and the U.S. dollar all rallying, today one of the greats in the business sent King World News a powerful piece cautioning that the IMF has just issued a second major warning about global turmoil.
From Art Cashin’s notes: “The IMF Warns Again – The IMF has cautioned the Fed and other central banks about any tightening of policy in the current environment. That’s the IMF’s second warning to the Fed.
The World Bank has also warned against a Fed move as has former Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers. Many prominent traders have also cautioned against a move. Among them are Stan Druckenmiller (below) and Jeff Gundlach.
I think that presents a formidable problem for the Fed. If they brush aside these cautions and go ahead, what happens if there is an unintended negative consequence? The world might say – You were warned but pushed ahead anyway. Would that destroy the Fed’s credibility? It’s a distinct possibility.
Meanwhile, Wall Street watering holes are filled with rumors (unconfirmed) that Fed staff are polling Primary Dealers and others about what disruptive results might occur.
Chip On My Shoulder? What Chip On My Shoulder? – Jeffrey Lacker, President of the Richmond Fed is scheduled to give a speech on Friday morning. It just may be a beaut.
The title of Mr. Lacker’s speech, if I understand it correctly is “The Case Against Further Delay.” Not much doubt on where he stands on a possible September hike, eh?
Overnight And Overseas – With Shanghai closed until next week, everyone’s got their party hats on. Tokyo’s up and Europe is up twice as much.
Gold, crude and the Euro are all a bit softer. U.S. futures look to a mildly higher opening.
Consensus – Draghi press conference could be important and may influence the Fed a bit. Lots of data this morning. Look to crude as a key market influence. Stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.” ***ALSO RELEASED: WARNING: Public Panic Has Just Created A 5.1 Standard Deviation Move In This Astonishing Indicator CLICK HERE.
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