KWN back online – here is what you need to know about today’s trading action.
***Articles were delayed today due to KWN being taken offline for a lengthy period of time, but we will be releasing written and audio interviews all weekend.
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
April 1 (King World News) – Overnight markets were very weak, with Japan losing 3.5% and Europe lower by better than 2% leading up to the release of today’s U.S. macro data. The payroll report was about as expected, with the government claiming that 215,000 jobs were created versus expectations of about 205,000…
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Bill Fleckenstein continues: Of course, these results benefitted from the warmer winter weather we are experiencing this year compared to the last couple of years, as demonstrated by the fact that construction, retail, and restaurant hiring were strong, while 29,000 manufacturing jobs were lost (obviously, the latter are less likely to be helped by the weather).
They Don’t Exactly Have It Made Following the NFP there were a number of companies that reported auto sales, with almost all of them quite a fair bit weaker than expected, and that was topped off a half hour after the opening by the ISM Manufacturing Index, which showed slightly better than expected at 51.8, versus 51, which was essentially right in line and kind of a nonevent.
The net of all the data and the worldwide equity weakness was a modest selloff initially in our stock market of a bit more than 0.5%. Folks then showed up to buy the dip and, presto, it wasn’t long before the indices turned green and kept on going, finishing the day about 0.75% higher.
Away from stocks, green paper was flat after trading both lower and higher. Oil was clipped for about 4%, fixed income was mixed (with the short end lower and the long end rallying), and the metals were clobbered — though I have no reasonable explanation as to why — with silver losing 3.5% to gold’s 2%, before they managed to cut those losses to 2.5% and 0.75%, respectively. The miners were almost all slightly higher despite the losses in metals.
Included below are two questions and answers from the Q&A’s with Bill Fleckenstein.
Question: Hi Bill, readers might find this interesting: I have met with 6 Canadian full service retail financial advisors. This is the scenario I have given them:
“I have $1,000,000 to invest. Can you provide me with a portfolio that will achieve between 5% – 6% ROR per year after your costs. I know it doesn’t have to be an annual measurement but I need to understand how we are going to monitor our results. I am only willing to lose 10%-15% of my capital. The answers have all been a version of “hang in there and hope” because history says it will happen somehow. In each meeting I have had the advisor bring up a chart of the last 20 years in the Japanese index. “How has that worked out for the Japanese investors?”….none have contacted me back to ask for my business!
Answer from Fleck: “Actually, I don’t find that surprising at all. Complacency has been a winning strategy now for nearly eight years.”
Question: My question/comment is in regards to psychology changing. When your refer to psychology changing, are your referring to the general public or the financial community? My comment on top of this would be, over the last 2-3 months I’ve talked to people (mostly well educated), and many/most don’t even know what the central bank is. It’s kind of sad because I feel it’s the main issue, but people still just think the 2007/8 was just a housing crash. When I mention QE, the response is always “What is that”. Maybe when things get really messy the general public will start to put the pieces together.
Answer from Fleck: “It is a process it isn’t often that something happens which is so big that everyone is forced to rethink things at once (i.e. 9/11). Usually it is investors first, then the public.”
***Articles were delayed today due to KWN being taken offline for a lengthy period of time but we will be releasing written and audio interviews all weekend.
KWN has now released the outstanding audio interview with Stephen Leeb and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
To hear a major new call that was issued on the silver market from the man who advises the largest global sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, investment banks, and institutional money managers in the world, Michael Belkin, you can listen his amazing audio interview by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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