Norcini has been stunningly accurate in his predictions of the movement in the gold and silver markets.  Now the acclaimed trader discusses these incredibly important developments in key markets:  “Yesterday was one of those days in which the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve made a point of saying everything he needed to say in order to cover all of the bases.  No matter who was listening they were sure to hear what they wanted. 

He had to let the market know that the Fed was mindful of not pulling the plug on the QE program too soon.  He chose those words to start his talk.  The effect was immediate – the precious metals markets roared to life and stock markets shot to yet another all-time high.  Even crude oil did its upward levitation act by surging higher on those initial comments....

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“Then it was time for Bernanke to reassure all of those currency traders out there that unlike the Bank of Japan, which was debasing its currency, the Fed was mindful of the impact a money creation scheme of this magnitude would have, and would taper back the bond buying program gradually, as soon as economic data warranted.  Down went the gold and silver markets, along with many of the other commodity markets. 

If that wasn’t enough, when the FOMC minutes were released later in the day, the metals markets, and even the equity markets, were sucker-punched by what those minutes revealed.  It showed definite talk about scaling back the QE, but it also showed a strong disagreement among the various members as to what constituted economic data strong enough to warrant such.  The markets did not care one whit about that – all they saw at an initial glance was more discussion about ending the funny money program and they chose to focus on that.

My take on this is shaped out of watching the games these master manipulators have learned to play with the markets.   In summary, this is everything that was communicated:  “We will scale back the QE when we think the economy is strong enough to no longer need it in a full dose.”  Who among us learned anything new from that statement?  This is the same dance that the Fed has been feeding the markets for many months now. 

It just goes to show that everyone with a functioning brain how utterly phony the stock market rally is and how dependent it is on the cocaine being force fed into it to sustain itself.  If the Fed spooks the equity markets into seriously believing that they are going to pull the plug on the QE program, what we saw yesterday afternoon with that violent downside selling wave that temporarily engulfed the stock market will look like a mini rehearsal for a massive waterfall decline.

This is why Bernanke chose to start off his speech in a soothing fashion.  He and the rest of the FOMC governors knew they had a tiger by the tail and if they let go, there is going to be serious trouble.  Take a look at the 15 minute silver chart if you want to see how ‘mere words’ alone can produce such insanely irrational price action:


Look at the volume surge when Bernanke opened his testimony and was QE bullish.  Then, look at the complete reversal lower and the surge in volume as all of those who just bought the market on his early comments were forced to rush back out having been handed an enormous loss. 

As a trader I have to deal with what is, not what I wish were, but even saying that, this sort of perverse volatility is further evidence in my own mind that the Fed has destroyed the integrity of the US financial markets.  They are now a mere playground with no useful or legitimate commercial purpose at this point. 

Imagine a bona fide hedger attempting to institute a risk management program for his or her firm and trying to read this crap and formulate a sound plan to insulate their company from financial havoc!  I will go as far as to state for the record that the Fed itself has now become the greatest source of market instability and volatility that any risk manager must reckon with in this day and age.

When the mere words of a mortal man can produce this sort of wild, unpredictable, and irrational swings in price, the markets are truly broken.  God helps us when they lose control because there will surely be hell to pay.”

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Eric King

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