By John Hathaway, Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.

January 11 (King World News) - Charts 16 & 17 reveal a potential time bomb for US treasuries. Interest on the public debt is close to historical lows, due in part to Fed manipulation, the “fear” trade, and old fashioned momentum.  Think of what 300 or 400 additional basis points across the yield curve would do to the fiscal deficit.  (Hint: what is 4% x $16 trillion as a percent of future fiscal deficits?  Answer: it is very high).

Charts 23 & 24 reflect the declining willingness of foreign investors to invest in US securities.  It may have something to do with the point above.

Continue reading the John Hathaway piece below...


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Charts 28, 31 & 32 indicate that despite all of the talk about gold, it remains very underowned.

Charts 35 & 36 show that sentiment is at, or approaching rock bottom levels from which rallies can be reliably be expected.

Chart 47 shows that despite all of the sell side whining about rising costs (see Chart 48 also), profits are at record levels.

The consequence of Chart 47 is reflected in Chart 51, a steady decline in equity issuance.  We believe declining equity dilution is an important positive fundamental change in the industry that will help lead to expanding valuation of gold mining equities.


John Hathaway

Portfolio Manager and Senior Managing Director

© Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.

January 10, 2013

This article reflects the views of the author as of the date or dates cited and may change at any time. The information should not be construed as investment advice. No representation is made

concerning the accuracy of cited data, nor is there any guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion will be realized. 

References to stocks, securities or investments should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Securities that are referenced may

be held in portfolios managed by Tocqueville or by principals, employees and associates of Tocqueville, and such references should not be deemed as an understanding of any future

position, buying or selling, that may be taken by Tocqueville. We will periodically reprint charts or quote extensively from articles published by other sources. When we do, we will provide

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