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Michael Rothman continues:


“It’s not clear how many ships might face this hold-up of payment but the various bits and pieces of compliance to bring the nuke issue to a head is manifesting in unplanned losses of Iranian production - which appear to have dropped to new 10 years lows as per our chart below.


In the balance is the hope that any losses of Iranian and shortfalls still evidenced by non-OPEC producers can be made up by Saudi Arabia, particularly given still strong demand readings.  Frankly we’re skeptical given our analyses that spare capacity evaporated this past summer. 




There’s a lot of questions that come to us about the relationship between gasoline prices “at the pump” and crude oil, but very few about retail diesel prices.  The analyses we generated below examine weekly on-highway diesel selling prices against both spot WTI and Brent crudes. 


We expect most will find the high degree of correlation striking, especially with Brent over the past year - US refined product prices trade off of world crude oil prices as opposed to the price of WTI which has come to reflect regional issues.  Over the past 18 months (follow the arrow below).”




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