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John Williams continues:

 

“Adding the SGS estimate of excluded long-term discouraged workers back into the total unemployed and labor force, unemployment—more in line with common experience as estimated by the SGS-Alternate Unemployment Measure—notched higher to 22.5% (see above chart) in January from 22.4% in December.


There continues to be a noticeable divergence in the SGS series versus U.6.  The reason for this is that U.6, again, only includes discouraged workers who have been discouraged for less than a year.  As the discouraged-worker status ages, those that go beyond one year, fall off the government counting, and new workers enter ‘discouraged’ status.... 


Continue reading the John Williams piece below...  




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“Accordingly, with the continual rollover, the headline workers flow into the short-term discouraged workers counted in U.6 continue, and from U.6 into long-term discouraged worker status (SGS Measure) at what appears to be an accelerating pace. 


An unemployment rate above 22% might raise questions in terms of a comparison with the purported peak unemployment in the Great Depression (1933) of 25%.  The SGS level likely is about as bad as the peak unemployment seen in the 1973 to 1975 recession. 


The Great Depression unemployment rate was estimated well after the fact, with 27% of those employed working on farms.  Today, less that 2% work on farms.  Accordingly, for purposes of Great Depression comparison, I would look at the estimated peak nonfarm unemployment rate in 1933 of 34% to 35%.”


The above was just a small portion of an extraordinary report John Williams just released.


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Eric King

KingWorldNews.com

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