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Dan Norcini continues:
“You’ve got the potential for some selling in both gold and silver, particularly in gold now, as you have the small specs continuing to build what is now an even larger, record long exposure to this gold market. So if this market cannot get moving in a hurry, some of these stale longs are going to decide to take some money off the table.
If you have too many people making that same decision at the same time, you will see some downside action and some sell-stops taken out. That’s what these guys, who are capping the prices at $1,800 (for gold) and $35 in silver, are hoping for. They are trying to force a flush....
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“Whether or not they are going to get that (downside selloff) is unclear, but the longer this market builds in open interest, and the longer we stay stymied below these major resistance levels, the greater the chance of some downside action happening.
What we have now is the fourth largest net short position on record by these commercials. So we are really getting some builds here on the short side in the commercial category, and some very significant builds on the long side in the speculative category (on the COT).
The hedge funds have really piled on the long side in this (gold) market. They are the ones that have driven this (gold) all the way up from $1,600, to $1,800. We are getting a huge build among the general public, (as) they continue to add to their long positions. What’s happening is that (buying) is being met by swap dealer selling and commercial bullion bank selling.
Again, we are at a place where we are approaching levels that are not necessarily guaranteeing you are going to get a selloff, but if we do get a downside support level taken out, you have the potential here for some significant selling waves to occur because a lot of guys (that are long) are going to get flushed out.
If you have people piling on (long) positions between $1,785 and $1,800, it doesn’t take a whole lot in the way of downside correction, you could drop $30 or $40 and you’ve got some pretty good size losses in those (retail) accounts. The smaller trading accounts can’t handle losses of $3,000 to $4,000 per contract, and you would definitely see some forced selling (in that situation).
The key here, Eric, is how aggressively will the bullion banks and the swap dealers cover existing shorts on any downside action. (Second), how aggressively will we see buying come out of the Far East and the Middle-East in the physical gold market?”
Norcini also added: “Silver is kind of interesting too, Eric, because you have a similar pattern. You’ve got a lot of hedge funds buying right now. Those guys have really come in (to paper silver) in a big way. The small specs are (also) really loading up on the long side of silver.
It wasn’t that long ago that we were talking about a record net long position among the swap dealers (in silver). Back in July, they had amassed a pretty good sized long position. Well, they have radically reversed their position. They’ve gone from over 16,000 net longs, to over 14,000 net shorts. We are talking about a 30,000 (net) contract change.
That is where the heavy selling is coming from in silver. There is the usual commercial related selling, but most of the selling, the big selling, is coming from that swap dealer category. There is a (massive) battle being raged at that $35 level in silver, just like the $1,800 level in gold. Whichever side blinks first in this is going to experience pain, that’s for sure.”
It will be interesting to see if the commercials can force a quick liquidation before the metals continue their advance. As Norcini mentioned, the commercials and swap dealers would like to see a smash in these markets which would force liquidation and allow them to cover some of their existing short positions.
If we do see a breakout to the upside in gold and silver, we will have to make sure it is going to be a sustainable move and not a ‘head fake’ to the upside. For those of you who dollar cost average into physical gold and silver each month, if next week is the week you normally add to your holdings, simply continue with that discipline. Do not try to time the market.
For those of you that are looking to add to your mining share positions, just be aware that the mining shares will move with the metals markets, even though they are still deeply undervalued on a historic basis.
This was just a small portion of the type of critical information which is covered each week in the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap with Bill Haynes and Dan Norcini. To hear a continuation of this conversation, you can listen to the entire interview by CLICKING HERE.
© 2012 by King World News®. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. However, linking directly to the blog page is permitted and encouraged.
KWN also had tremendous interviews with Gerald Celente and John Embry discussing the metals markets. The KWN audio interviews with Celente and Embry are available now and you can listen to them by CLICKING HERE.
The interviews with John Embry, Gerald Celente, Rick Santelli, Michael Pento and Don Coxe are available now. Also, be sure to listen to last week’s line-up of other KWN interviews which included, Pierre Lassonde, Rick Rule, Nigel Farage, Ben Davies, Dr. Keith Barron and Jean-Marie Eveillard by CLICKING HERE.
Eric King
More Stunning Developments In The Gold & Silver Markets
Today King World News is reporting on incredibly important developments taking place in the gold and silver markets. Acclaimed commodity trader Dan Norcini told KWN that swap dealers, “... have radically reversed their position (in the silver market).” He also stated, “There is a (massive) battle being raged at that $35 level in silver, just like the $1,800 level in gold. Whichever side blinks first in this is going to experience pain, that’s for sure.”
Norcini has been stunningly accurate in his predictions of the movement of the gold and silver markets. Now the acclaimed trader discusses these incredibly important developments in gold and silver: “What we’ve got going on in these markets right now is a build in open interest, speculative inflows being met with commercial selling and swap dealer selling. It has effectively stalemated the action. What we have now (is a situation) where whichever side blinks first, that’s the side that is going to get hit.”
© 2012 by King World News®. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast,
rewritten, or redistributed. However, linking directly to the blog page is permitted and encouraged.
October 7, 2012
