Turk continues:

“If this situation continues, and there is no reason to suspect that it is about to end quietly because the demand for physical silver is not abating, there are only two alternatives:

One, as we discussed on Friday, the silver price has to rise in order to dislodge physical metal from the strong hands that now own it. But why would anyone accept some national currency in exchange for physical silver unless the price is much, much higher?

Two, the shorts declare force majeure and use government force to let them escape from their untenable position. The fall-out from this outcome is very complex because there are so many factors to consider. But I would expect that any default would only strengthen the resolve of the strong hands now owning physical metal.  Meaning that the market for physical silver would become even more tight than it is now, even if the price shoots higher as I expect.”

Turk also went on to make the following points:

“Look for a short squeeze in silver already underway as evidenced by the backwardation to intensify as we move toward silver option expiry at the end of this month, and silver delivery on March futures contracts in early March.  In a short squeeze, what matters is ownership, not price. When you own physical metal, you are protected from government sanctioned force majeure that bails out the shorts.

As I mentioned Friday, the paper market for silver is losing its significance in the process of price discovery. Everyone who owns physical silver should make their decisions based on what is happening in the physical market, not the paper market. 

A basic premise of precious metals is that silver leads gold, which is a point we have discussed before. It will be interesting to see whether the backwardation in silver will lead to a backwardation of gold. If it does, the end game for the US dollar is near. It would mean hyperinflation of the dollar is upon us.”

Turk brings up a key point here about keeping an eye on the physical market in both metals.  Paper gyrations aside, in the end the physical market will have the last word.

Eric King

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