On the heels of some fierce trading this week in the dollar, gold and silver, below is an extremely important update on the war that is raging in the gold and silver markets.
The following charts are from Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader.
Commercial Short Positions In Gold Near All-Time Highs
King World News note: Below you can see the commercial hedgers have added aggressively to their short positions in the gold market this week. There was very little change in commercial short positions reported for this week (see 10-year chart below). That does not mean that the price of gold cannot continue heading significantly higher in the short-term, but it does raise a caution flag.
The next chart takes a longer-term look at gold…
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King World News note: Sometimes it’s important to take a step back and look at the big picture in the gold market. Looking at the 23-year chart below, the commercials are now very close to all-time record short positions in the gold market (see remarkable 23-year chart below).
As For Silver…
Commercial Short Positions In Silver Hit All-Time Record High!
King World News note: Below you can see the commercial hedgers position in the silver market market remain at all-time highs in terms of their overall shorts (see 23-year chart below).
The commercial shorts are at a level that raises serious concern. In fact, the commercials now have their largest cumulative short position in history. The last time the commercials held this large of a short position in silver was in 2004. Again, that does not mean that the price of silver cannot head significantly higher in the short-term.
What is important to note on the chart above is that the last time the commercials were this short silver there was a brief 12.7 percent pullback in the price of silver, but over the next 18 months the price of silver more than doubled from the low of that pullback in 2004. So from late November of 2004, when the price of silver fell to about $6.70, the price of silver soared to $14.31 by early May of 2006. Nevertheless, the commercials now have historic short bets against silver and that is something that traders and investors should watch closely.
King World News note: I would just add that sentiment for silver has been tumbling and has not yet reached the level of “Excessive Optimism” (see multi-year silver sentiment chart below).
King World News note: You can see how many times there was “Excessive Optimism” in silver in its previous bull run (see 25-year silver sentiment chart below).
King World News note: It is also important to note that sentiment for gold has been weakening and has also not yet reached the level of “Excessive Optimism” (see multi-year gold sentiment chart below).
King World News note: The Gold Optix spent a significant amount of time in the “Excessive Optimism” levels during the bullish advance from 2001 – 2011. Yet at the beginning of this cyclical bullish phase of the secular bull market in gold, sentiment still remains somewhat subdued. But that’s what bull markets do, they “climb a wall of worry.”
It would appear that the endless talk about the massive commercial short positions in both metals coupled with the bullish advance coming on the heels of a brutal 5-year cyclical bear market is keeping a healthy level of “fear” in the early stages of the newest leg of the bullish advance. So it will be very interesting to see how gold and silver trade from current levels in the days and weeks ahead.
The charts above are from SentimenTrader. To try a free 14-day trial of the internationally acclaimed work that Jason Goepfert produces at SentimenTrader simply CLICK HERE.
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***Also released More Wisdom From Jesse Livermore And Some Key Market Notes On Friday The 13th CLICK HERE.
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